1. You are the author of what promises to be a successful novel. You have the option to either publish the novel yourself or through a publisher. The publisher is offering you $20,000 for signing the contract. If the novel is successful, it will sell 200,000 copies. If it isn't, it will sell only 10,000 copies. The publisher pays a $1 royalty per copy. A market survey by the publisher indicates that there is a 70% chance that the novel will be successful. If you publish the novel yourself, you will incur an initial cost of $90,000 for printing and marketing, but each copy sold will net you $2. (a) Draw the associated decision tree. Based on the given information, would you accept the publisher's offer or publish the book yourself? (b) Suppose that you contract a literary agent to conduct a survey concerning the potential success of the novel. From past experience, the agent advises you that when a novel is successful, the survey will predict the wrong outcome 20% of the time. When the novel is not successful, the survey will give the correct prediction 85% of the time, Draw the decision analysis tree for this condition. How would this information affect your decision? Darke have agreed