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categoryإحصاء schoolبكالوريوس event_available2026-07-15

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9. Use the information in Problem #8, but now suppose the chances of being audited by the IRS, two years in a row, is 03 or (3%). Please calculate the probability of you being audited in year two, given you were audited in year one. Hints: Thomas Bayes' Theorem may be helpful, or at least the simple version of it, that I showed you in lecture. #9 Continued... In addition, complete a tree diagram to show the probabilities of being audited in year one and year two, based on all of the possible scenarios. Hint: There are four values at the end of the tree diagram. Note: the values must add up to 1.0. Note: If you are not audited in year one, then year two's probability of being audited takes on the probability of year one's audit probability. 8. Suppose you are concerned that your business will get audited by the Internal Revenue Service (IRS), three years in a row, when they see the deductions that you took. You are concemed you may go to jail! Assume that the chances of getting audited, for your type of business, by the IRS is 6%, for any given year. What is the probability that you may go to jail? Show your calculations. Carry answer out four decimal places.

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